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Bill Fleckenstein

Contrarian Chronicles

Contrarian today, but tomorrow, who knows?

Here’s what you can expect as we look toward a world that’s again safe for long-term investors.

By Bill Fleckenstein

Contrarian Chronicles is a synopsis of my daily column on my Web site, Fleckensteincapital.com. A variety of crosscurrents affect the financial markets at any given time, and many of them are reported on with less thoroughness than I would like to see. I try to draw attention to potential problems or inconsistencies, especially when it seems others are reluctant to do so. That said, I make no pretense about being completely objective. I have my own biases, and I rather like them.

As events dictate, my focus in Contrarian Chronicles will change periodically, as it has many times since I began writing my column in the fall of 1996. My perspective is that of a professional investor. However, the articles I point out are more often aimed at the small investor. In this way, I hope there will be something in Contrarian Chronicles that will be useful for all interests and all experience levels. What you won't find in the Contrarian Chronicles (or in my e-mail responses to readers) are recommendations about when to buy or sell specific stocks -- although I reserve the right to break this rule on occasion. I typically mention stocks by name only to illustrate a point regarding particular sectors or broader market trends.

Although I currently run a short-only hedge fund, I was so bullish in 1980 that I left the computer business to become a stockbroker. I founded a money management firm in 1982, and I have been bullish (and bearish) on almost every industry group, commodity and asset class at one time or another during my investment career. I look forward to the day, hopefully not too far in the future, when the enormous speculation of the last five years has been washed away and it will be safe to be a long-term investor on the long side of the market once again. My time horizon as an investor is long-term (three to five years), so even though Contrarian Chronicles looks at the market action that occurs within a brief time frame, I also try to weave bigger-picture themes into the discussion.

In the interest of full disclosure, given the profile of my fund, I will disclose all of my positions (if any) in stocks mentioned in the column in the disclaimer at the conclusion of Contrarian Chronicles.

Though I cannot provide individual financial advice, I welcome reader comments, questions and suggestions.

Bill Fleckenstein is president of Fleckenstein Capital, which manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. He also writes a daily "Market Rap" column on his Fleckenstein Capital Web site. His investment positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. The views and opinions expressed in Bill Fleckenstein's columns are his own and not necessarily those of CNBC or MSN Money. At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein did not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this column.

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